Politica Internazionale

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martedì 17 gennaio 2017

China is a guide of globalization

China's participation in the World Economic Forum in Davos, reports the Beijing government's willingness to act as a nation protagonist of globalization, in stark contrast to the protectionist trend, which should characterize the new course of the United States. It seems to be faced with a contradiction in terms: a country that calls itself communist become the main promoter of production and barrier-free market, and what is the champion of free trade, which will be governed by an executive with a clear right-wing connotation , it seems to deny free trade to promote, at least on its territory, the American nationality industries. In fact this contradiction is only superficial: China has become a paradise for entrepreneurs, both Chinese and foreign, ensuring working conditions with no guarantees for workers with highly flexible laws in favor of industries and entrepreneurs, attracted also by a cost the extremely low labor; the absence of democratic norms to regulate the civic life and the presence of a strong, authoritarian government, have ensured a stable situation, and for sure, so good for investors and producers. Trump has got a lot of votes, probably decisive for their electoral victory, just from working-class base of the United States, a part of American society that has lost purchasing power and job due to relocation of industries, one of the features that made the winning China, in the sense of ability to attract foreign companies on its territory. Despite the good of the US domestic recovery, obtained thanks to the expansionary measures Obama, Trump was able to catalyze the votes of the white working class with the promise to bring the most traditional American industries, such as automobile, within the boundaries of the state and to implement a strict protection of US goods by recovery of customs duties. What will be verified is whether the maneuver Trump to expand the number of employed people will not ask to be balanced with compression of rights or wages of American workers. Trump seems to have a vision of politics based essentially on the economy as the main aspect, to which even sacrifice the diplomatic line that the US has historically had to date. such a vision implies that the main adversary is no longer Russia, which can not compete with the US economy, but it will become China, which undermines long American supremacy. The two concepts are diametrically opposed: China to prosper in this historical phase, it needs more thrust of globalization, while Trump identifies protectionism as US economic growth factor. Beijing can take advantage of this trend to the closure of Trump, who seems to have the intention to diminish the geopolitical and geostrategic action abroad in the US, trying to establish itself as a great power. Large investments in the military sector, the shows of force in the South China Sea, large investments in Africa, were signs of a willingness to become an international player, however, it mitigated by the characteristics of the Chinese foreign policy never to meddle in the internal affairs other nations, a factor that prevented an active role in many international crises; but this has not yet mutated in Beijing behavior, rather the Chinese government prefers to adopt softer methods, like to participate in the forum in Davos. If America withdraws within its borders, more and win more Europe becomes crucial because it remains the richest market. Because this conquest is actual need for China to find a greater similarity with the large financial institutions and major European industry, seeking common ground of understanding, both on the rules, and on the willingness to invest. For China it is required to grow their domestic market and try to solve the great debt of local authorities, which rests, ultimately, on the central government. But these issues seem minor compared to the potential conflict that the Trump USA have repeatedly threatened to blow against an economy that deem conducted with media, at least, unfair, such as the excessive devaluation of the Chinese currency. The comparison between the two economies seems to be destined to rise in rank to go on a political level, with all consequences to predict.

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