The variables of the North Korean situation

While in Pyonyang, the regime calls for North Korean citizenship, with the clear intent of rebuilding a patriotic spirit that has failed because of the difficult conditions of the population, the threats on both sides of the US and North Korea are recording an escalation Verbal, which can not leave observers silent. However, despite a rather excited state, analysts still feel highly unlikely the occurrence of a nuclear conflict. As far as North Korea is concerned, if you are sure of the capacity of Pyongyang's ballistic missile capacity, which is now without shadow of doubt coming to the US coastline, you are very much questioned about the ability of Kim Jong-un's scientists to be in Able to miniaturize atomic weapons so far as to be mounted on a missile apparatus. There are also considerations and assessments that must be made about the possible toll on the potential number of victims, which could pay South Korea and Japan as well. This element is constantly on the attention of American soldiers in view of a possible retaliation against a Pyongyang attack. Indeed, if US military superiority is taken away by destroying North Korea, it is impossible, in a possible conflict, to think that there would be Seoul and Tokyo's involvement, as well as the targets of North Korea retaliation. The United States for access to military option must be sure of an immediate victory capable of annihilating North Korean military power without the possibility of any reaction, while it is reasonable to assume that the Pyongyang regime would not hesitate to use The atomic weapon against neighboring countries, where nuclear weapons can certainly come. The possibility that American action is so fast to come to victory without Pyongyang being able to harm neighboring countries is virtually impossible: since military arsenals have been carefully protected and can not be harmless over a period of time too short. It is clear that this factor favors Kim Jong-un in his provocation policy against Washington, which is obliged to be more cautious. Despite Trump's intimperation, also made for internal use and to recovering at least part of the lost appeal, analysts believe that the Pentagon's approach to North Korea is prone to extreme caution. There is also an additional factor that is not considered secondary by US strategists: the bad relations between South Korea and Japan that could affect an alliance against the North Koreans. The disagreements between the two countries date back to World War II, and in this Seoul is united in Beijing, and recently a South Korean court sentenced a large Japanese industry to pay heavy compensation to South Korean citizens for slave labor exploitation during 'occupation. Although both countries, Japan and South Korea have the United States as the largest ally, the distance between them may be highly damaging in terms of coordination in the event of a conflict in the region. Lastly, China, which has repeatedly called for moderation of tones between the two sides, follows with interest the developments of the threats to the bombing of the island of Guam, home to an important US military base. For the US, the garrison of this island is considered fundamental in view of the military containment of Chinese power and its ambitions to extend its influence to the region. It does not seem likely that Beijing could sacrifice peace to take away the most important regional garrison in the United States, but if this were to happen to the Chinese government, it would certainly not be displeasing. This factor, though not fundamental, is likely to affect, at least in part, the whole scenario, whose negative developments are always linked to any perjured, and perhaps desperate, act by Pyongyang.